Sadoulet, E., and de Janvry, A., 1995. Quantitative Development Policy Analysis. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
Obiettivi Formativi
The overall objective is providing the theoretical and methodological foundations for quantitative evaluation of policy impacts on poverty and food security in rural areas in LDCs.
The course approach is based on two coordinated sets of contents, namely:
- critical review of theories and models, and
- empirical analysis of case studies.
Metodi Didattici
The course consists of two types of activities:
a) lectures: 20 lectures of two hours each (total 40 hours), and
b) case studies: 6 homeworks on datasets provided by the instructor every other week and reports (to be prepared in groups of no more than 3-4 students) on the impacts of policy interventions using datasets provided by the instructor.
Altre Informazioni
The lecture handouts and all relevant materials can be downloaded at http://e-l.unifi.it/login/index.php (the password to access the course on the Moodle platform will be provided by the lecturer).
Modalità di verifica apprendimento
Lectures, homeworks and reports are meant as coordinated components of the course and jointly contribute to the student evaluation mechanism.
The evaluation mechanism considers the following items:
- AP: attendance and participation to class;
- HW: homeworks and reports on case studies;
- MT: mid-term exam, on the contents of the course first half (lectures 1 to 10);
- FI: final exam, on all course contents (lectures 1 to 20).
Both the mid-term and the final exam are written exams.
In the case the final exam grade is lower than the mid-term grade, the overall grade is a weighted average of the above items according to the following formula:
GR=0.05AP+0.30HW+0.25MT+0.4FI
where, GR overall grade,
AP attendance and participation,
HW homeworks and reports,
MT mid-term exam,
FI final exam.
In the case the final exam grade is higher than the mid-term grade, the overall grade is computed according to the following formula:
GR=0.05AP+0.30HW+0.65FI
Programma del corso
1. Introduction to quantitative development policy analysis
• Course presentation
• The role of quantitative policy analysis
• Criteria for policy evaluation: welfare and feasibility
• The role of modeling
2. Policy impact evaluation
• The policy process and the role of policy evaluation
• Causal inference and counterfactual
• Experimental design and randomization
• Matching
• Difference in difference
HW1: Impact of female participation to microcredit program on household consumption in Bangladesh
3. The profit function approach (I): factor demand
• The basic theory of production
• Examples of profit functions
• Derived systems of output supply and factor demand
• Cost function and systems of factor demands
4. The profit function approach (II): output supply
• Short-run vs. long-run supply response
• Aggregate supply response
5. Supply response
• Alternative approaches to the measurement of supply response
• Nerlovian models of supply response
• Examples of Nerlovian models
6. Supply response
• Limits and extensions of Nerlovian models
• Producer response to lagged prices (cobweb models) and market dynamics
• Alternative expectation models
HW2: Supply response for groundnuts in Sub-Saharan Africa
7. Food security
• Definitions and levels of analysis
• Alternative approaches to food security analysis
• Food production and food security: the role of agriculture
• Trade and food security
• Methods for measuring food security
8. Farmer behavior and welfare under risk
• Technical and economic features of agricultural production processes
• Risk modeling in production economics
• Measuring the cost of risk
• Household response to risk
• Market integration and price stabilization
9. Agricultural household models
• Household behavior and policy analysis
• Producer problem
• Consumer problem
• Worker problem
• Household problem
• Specification of a household model
10. Agricultural household models
• Separable household models with perfect markets
• Non-separable household models with market failures
• Calibration and simulations
HW3: Household response to price incentives
11. Price distortions: partial equilibrium analysis
• Reference prices
• Indicators of protection and incentives
• Indicators of comparative advantages
12. Price distortions: partial equilibrium analysis
• Partial equilibrium analysis of price distortions
• Distortions on tradables
• Distortions on non tradables
• Multiple interventions
HW4: Effects of price distortions and investment in research on efficiency and welfare in Argentina
13. Effects of macroeconomic policies
• Stabilization and structural adjustment: impacts on rural households
• Exchange rate policy
• Fiscal policy
• Monetary policy
14. The real exchange rate
• Market and effective exchange rates
• The equilibrium exchange rate
• Forces affecting the real exchange rate
• Impact of trade distortions on the real exchange rate
HW5: Exchange rate and trade policies in Pakistan
15. Transaction costs and agrarian institutions
• Efficiency: definitions and measurement
• Technical change and productivity growth
16. Transaction costs and agrarian institutions
• Efficiency and productivity under transaction costs
• Household behavior under transaction costs
• Transaction costs and institutional solutions: sharecropping
17. Input-output tables
• Structure of an input-output table
• The input-output model: equations
• Interpretation and extensions
• I-O multipliers
18. Social accounting matrices
• SAM structure
• Construction of a SAM: data requirements
• SAM multipliers
• Interpretation and extensions
HW6: Input-output and SAM multipliers in Morocco
19. CGE models (I)
• Structure of CGE models
• Agents’ behavior and market equilibrium
• The macroeconomics of CGE models
• Foreign trade and the real exchange rate
• Labor market
20. CGE models (II)
• Construction of a CGE model
• Flow chart and functional specifications
• Data requirements
• Closure rules
• Exogenous variables